Relation
to the modern financial system
The financial system in most western
countries has undergone a remarkable transformation. One feature of this
development is disintermediation. A portion of the funds involved
in saving and financing, flows directly to the financial markets instead of
being routed via the traditional bank lending and deposit operations. The
general public interest in investing in the stock market, either directly or
through mutual
funds, has been an important component of this process.
Statistics show that in recent decades,
shares have made up an increasingly large proportion of households' financial
assets in many countries. In the 1970s, in Sweden, deposit accounts and
other very liquid assets with little risk made up almost 60 percent of
households' financial wealth, compared to less than 20 percent in the 2000s.
The major part of this adjustment is that financial portfolios have
gone directly to shares but a good deal now takes the form of various kinds of
institutional investment for groups of individuals, e.g., pension funds, mutual
funds, hedge funds, insurance investment of premiums, etc.
The trend towards forms of saving with a
higher risk has been accentuated by new rules for most funds and insurance,
permitting a higher proportion of shares to bonds. Similar tendencies are to be
found in other developed countries. In all developed
economic systems, such as the European Union, the United States, Japan and
other developed nations, the trend has been the same: saving has moved away
from traditional (government insured) "bank deposits to more risky
securities of one sort or another".
A
second transformation is the move to electronic
trading to replace human trading of listed securities
United
States S&P stock market returns
(Assumes 2% annual dividend
Years to December 31, 2012
|
Average Annual Return
%
|
Average Compounded
Annual Return
%
|
1
|
15.5
|
15.5
|
3
|
10.9
|
11.6
|
5
|
4.3
|
10.1
|
10
|
8.8
|
7.3
|
15
|
6.5
|
5.9
|
20
|
10.0
|
6.4
|
30
|
11.6
|
7.3
|
40
|
10.1
|
8.0
|
50
|
10.0
|
8.1
|
60
|
10.5
|
8.2
|
Compared to Other Asset Classes Over the long term, investing in a well-diversified
portfolio of stocks such as an S&P 500 Index outperforms other investment
vehicles such as Treasury Bills and Bonds, with the S&P 500 having a
geometric annual average of 9.55% from 1928 to 2013.
Behavior
of the stock market
NASDAQ in Times Square, New York City
Investors may temporarily move financial
prices away from market equilibrium. Over-reactions may occur—so that excessive
optimism (euphoria) may drive prices unduly high or excessive pessimism may
drive prices unduly low. Economists continue to debate whether financial
markets are generally efficient.
According to one interpretation of the efficient-market
hypothesis (EMH), only changes in fundamental factors, such as the
outlook for margins, profits or dividends, ought to affect share prices beyond
the short term, where random 'noise'
in the system may prevail. The 'hard' efficient-market
hypothesis does not explain the cause of events such as the crash in 1987,
when the Dow
Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6 percent—the
largest-ever one-day fall in the United States.
This event demonstrated that share prices can
fall dramatically even though no generally agreed upon definite cause has been
found: a thorough search failed to detect any 'reasonable'
development that might have accounted for the crash. (Note that such events are
predicted to occur strictly by chance,
although very rarely.) It seems also to be the case more generally that many
price movements (beyond that which are predicted to occur 'randomly') are not occasioned
by new information; a study of the fifty largest one-day share price movements
in the United States in the post-war period seems to confirm this.
A 'soft' EMH has emerged which does not
require that prices remain at or near equilibrium, but only that market
participants not be able to systematically profit from any
momentary market 'inefficiencies'. Moreover, while EMH predicts
that all price movement (in the absence of change in fundamental information)
is random (i.e., non-trending), many studies have shown a marked tendency for
the stock market to trend over time periods of weeks or longer. Various
explanations for such large and apparently non-random price movements have been
promulgated. For instance, some research has shown that changes in estimated
risk, and the use of certain strategies, such as stop-loss limits and value at risk limits, theoretically
could cause financial markets to overreact. But the best explanation
seems to be that the distribution of stock market prices is non-Gaussian (in
which case EMH, in any of its current forms, would not be strictly applicable).
Other research has shown that psychological factors may
result in exaggerated (statistically anomalous) stock price
movements (contrary to EMH which assumes such behaviors 'cancel out').
Psychological research has demonstrated that people are predisposed to 'seeing'
patterns, and often will perceive a pattern in what is, in fact, just noise,
e.g. seeing familiar shapes in clouds or ink blots. In the present context this
means that a succession of good news items about a company may lead investors
to overreact positively, driving the price up. A period of good returns also
boosts the investors' self-confidence, reducing their (psychological) risk
threshold.
Another phenomenon—also from psychology—that
works against an objective assessment
is group
thinking. As social animals, it is not easy to stick to an opinion that
differs markedly from that of a majority of the group. An example with which
one may be familiar is the reluctance to enter a restaurant that is empty;
people generally prefer to have their opinion validated by those of others in
the group.
In one paper the authors draw an analogy
with gambling.In
normal times the market behaves like a game of roulette;
the probabilities are known and largely independent of the investment decisions
of the different players. In times of market stress, however, the game becomes
more like poker (herding behavior takes over). The players now must give heavy
weight to the psychology of other investors and how they are likely to react
psychologically.
In the period running up to the 1987 crash,
less than 1 percent of the analyst's recommendations had been to sell (and even
during the 2000–2002 bear market, the average did not rise above 5%). In the
run-up to 2000, the media amplified the general euphoria, with reports of
rapidly rising share prices and the notion that large sums of money could be
quickly earned in the so-called new economy stock
market.
Stock markets play an essential role in
growing industries that ultimately affect the economy through transferring
available funds from units that have excess funds (savings) to those who are
suffering from funds deficit (borrowings) (Padhi and Naik, 2012). In other
words, capital markets facilitate funds movement between the above-mentioned
units. This process leads to the enhancement of available financial resources
which in turn affects the economic growth positively. Moreover, both economic
and financial theories argue that stock prices are affected by macroeconomic
trends.
Many different academic researchers have
stated companies with low P/E ratios and smaller sized companies have a
tendency to outperform the market. Research carried out states mid-sized
companies outperform large cap companies and smaller companies have higher
returns historically.
Irrational
behavior
Sometimes, the market seems to react
irrationally to economic or financial news, even if that news is likely to have
no real effect on the fundamental value of securities itself. However,
this market behavior may be more apparent than real, since often such news was
anticipated, and a counter reaction may occur if the news is better (or worse)
than expected. Therefore, the stock market may be swayed in either direction by
press releases, rumors, euphoria and mass panic.
Over the short-term, stocks and other
securities can be battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-changing
events, making the stock market behavior difficult to predict. Emotions can
drive prices up and down, people are generally not as rational as they think,
and the reasons for buying and selling are generally accepted.
Behaviorists argue that investors often
behave irrationally when making investment decisions thereby
incorrectly pricing securities, which causes market inefficiencies, which, in
turn, are opportunities to make money. However, the whole notion of EMH is
that these non-rational reactions to information cancel out, leaving the prices
of stocks rationally determined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average biggest gain
in one day was 936.42 points or 11%
Crashes
List
of stock market crashes
Robert
Shiller's plot of the S&P Composite Real Price
Index, Earnings, Dividends, and Interest Rates, from Irrational
Exuberance, 2d ed In the preface to this
edition, Shiller warns, "The stock market has not come down to historical
levels: the price-earnings ratio as I define it in this book is still, at this
writing [2005], in the mid-20s, far higher than the historical average...
People still place too much confidence in the markets and have too strong a
belief that paying attention to the gyrations in their investments will someday
make them rich, and so they do not make conservative preparations for possible
bad outcomes."

Price-Earnings
ratios as a predictor of twenty-year returns based upon the plot by Robert
Shiller .
The horizontal axis shows the real price-earnings ratio of the S&P
Composite Stock Price Index as computed
in Irrational Exuberance(inflation adjusted price divided by the
prior ten-year mean of inflation-adjusted earnings). The vertical axis shows
the geometric average real annual return on investing in the S&P Composite
Stock Price Index, reinvesting dividends, and selling twenty years later. Data
from different twenty-year periods is color-coded as shown in the key. See
also ten-year returns. Shiller states
that this plot "confirms that
long-term investors—investors who commit their money to an investment for ten
full years—did do well when prices were low relative to earnings at the
beginning of the ten years. Long-term investors would be well advised,
individually, to lower their exposure to the stock market when it is high, as
it has been recently, and get into the market when it is low."
A stock market crash is often defined as a
sharp dip in share prices of stocks listed
on the stock exchanges. In parallel with various economic factors, a reason for
stock market crashes is also due to panic and investing public's loss of
confidence. Often, stock market crashes end speculative economic bubbles.
There have been famous stock market crashes that
have ended in the loss of billions of dollars and wealth destruction on a
massive scale. An increasing number of people are involved in the stock market,
especially since the social security and retirement plans are
being increasingly privatized and linked to stocks and
bonds and other elements of the market. There have been a number of famous
stock market crashes like the Wall Street Crash of 1929,
the stock
market crash of 1973–4, the Black Monday of 1987,
the Dot-com
bubble of 2000, and the Stock Market Crash of 2008.
One of the most famous stock market crashes
started October 24, 1929, on Black Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average lost 50% during this stock market crash. It was the
beginning of the Great Depression. Another
famous crash took place on October 19, 1987 – Black Monday. The crash began in
Hong Kong and quickly spread around the world.
By the end of October, stock markets in Hong
Kong had fallen 45.5%, Australia 41.8%, Spain 31%, the United Kingdom 26.4%,
the United States 22.68%, and Canada 22.5%. Black Monday itself was the largest
one-day percentage decline in stock market history – the Dow Jones fell by
22.6% in a day. The names "Black Monday" and "Black
Tuesday" are also used for October 28–29, 1929, which followed Terrible
Thursday—the starting day of the stock market crash in 1929.
The crash in 1987 raised some puzzles – main
news and events did not predict the catastrophe and visible reasons for the
collapse were not identified. This event raised questions about many important
assumptions of modern economics, namely, the theory of rational
human conduct, the theory of market equilibrium and
the efficient-market
hypothesis. For some time after the crash, trading in stock exchanges
worldwide was halted, since the exchange computers did not perform well owing
to enormous quantity of trades being received at one time. This halt in trading
allowed the Federal Reserve System and central banks of
other countries to take measures to control the spreading of worldwide
financial crisis. In the United States the SEC introduced several new measures
of control into the stock market in an attempt to prevent a re-occurrence of
the events of Black Monday.
Since the early 1990s, many of the largest
exchanges have adopted electronic 'matching engines' to bring together buyers
and sellers, replacing the open outcry system. Electronic trading now accounts
for the majority of trading in many developed countries. Computer systems were
upgraded in the stock exchanges to handle larger trading volumes in a more
accurate and controlled manner. The SEC modified the margin requirements in an
attempt to lower the volatility of common stocks, stock options and the futures
market. The New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange introduced the concept of a circuit breaker. The circuit
breaker halts trading if the Dow declines a prescribed number of points for a
prescribed amount of time. In February 2012, the Investment Industry Regulatory
Organization of Canada (IIROC) introduced single-stock circuit breakers.
New
York Stock Exchange (NYSE) circuit brockers
% drop
|
time of drop
|
close trading for
|
10
|
before 2 pm
|
one hour halt
|
10
|
2 pm – 2:30 pm
|
half-hour halt
|
10
|
after 2:30 pm
|
market stays open
|
20
|
before 1 pm
|
halt for two hours
|
20
|
1 pm – 2 pm
|
halt for one hour
|
20
|
after 2 pm
|
close for the day
|
30
|
any time during day
|
close for the day
|
Stock
market prediction
Tobias Preis and his colleagues Helen Susannah Moat and H. Eugene Stanley introduced
a method to identify online precursors for stock market moves, using trading
strategies based on search volume data provided by Google Trends. Their
analysis of Google search volume for 98 terms
of varying financial relevance suggests that increases in search volume for
financially relevant search terms tend to precede large losses in financial markets.
Stock market index
The movements of the prices in a market or
section of a market are captured in price indices called stock market indices,
of which there are many, e.g., the S&P,
the FTSE and
the Euronext indices.
Such indices are usually market capitalization weighted,
with the weights reflecting the contribution of the stock to the index. The
constituents of the index are reviewed frequently to include/exclude stocks in
order to reflect the changing business environment.
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ReplyDeleteGood article with most of the relevant facts......Keep the the good work up.......Good Luck...!!!!!!
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